36 Reasons Why The Phillies Will Beat The Dbacks

Or 36 reasons why we should be optimistic, at least.

1. The Phillies are 26-11 all-time in playoff games at Citizens Bank Park, the highest home winning percentage in MLB postseason history. That’s a 70.2% win rate—the pace of a team that would win 114 games out of 162—against the best teams baseball has to offer.

2. Zack Wheeler’s updated career postseason statistics: 8 G, 48.2 IP, 2.59 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 51 strikeouts, 8 walks. He still has the lowest WHIP in MLB postseason history (min. 35 IP) at 0.719.

3. Arizona’s mascot, “Baxter,” is almost as dumb as Blooper. The team is named after a snake but Baxter is a bobcat. And he made the mistake of running his mouth about the Phanatic. (His tweeted that back in 2012, but revenge is best served cold.)

   

4. Zac Gallen has a 2.22 career ERA against the Phillies, but he averages fewer than 5 innings per start against them (24.1 IP in 5 games).

5. Jeff Hoffman has a career 1.000 batting average against Zac Gallen.

6. Trea Turner this postseason: 6 games, 26 PA, .500/.538/.917 (1.455 OPS), 5 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 SB, 0 CS.

7. Bryce Harper’s postseason stats as a Phillie: 23 games, 97 PA .354/.448/.768 (1.216 OPS), 19 R, 9 HR, 18 RBI.

8. This is not the face of a man about to get his dreams derailed by the Arizona f**king Diamondbacks:

   

9. Kyle Schwarber averaged 1 home run per 12.5 at-bats in the 2022 regular season, 1 home run per 9.2 at-bats in the 2022 postseason, and 1 home run per 12.4 at-bats in the 2023 regular season. He’s up to 25 at-bats this postseason without a home run… The man is a ticking time bomb.

10. The Phillies have never lost a postseason series with Orion Kerkering on the roster.

11. Evan Longoria plays for the Diamondbacks. He’s well-known for exactly 2 things: 1) his starring role on Desperate Housewives from 2004 through 2012; and 2) going 1 for 20 against the Phillies in the 2008 World Series.

12. Brandon Marsh has a career slash line of .344/.364/.531 against Arizona.

13. Arizona starters Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are a great 1-2 punch to go up against Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. But in game 3 against Ranger Suarez, the Snakes will reportedly turn to rookie Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt’s regular season stats: 3-9, 19 appearances (18 starts), 96 IP, 5.72 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 1.41 WHIP. He didn’t make it out of the 3rd inning in his first start this postseason, and he was pulled after 42 pitches in his second start.

    

14. JT Realmuto and Trea Turner are the only Phillies batters who have faced Merrill Kelly at least 9 times. Their stats against him:

    • Realmuto: 9 PA, 3 H, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .333/.333/.778 (1.111 OPS)

    • Turner: 24 PA, 9 H, 0 HR, 6 RBI, .429/.500/.571 (1.071 OPS)

15. It’s unclear who will start game 4 for Arizona. Other than Gallen/Kelly/Pfaadt, the pitchers who started the most games for the Dbacks are: Ryne Nelson (27 starts, 5.31 reg. season ERA), Zach Davies (18 starts, 7.00 ERA), and Tommy Henry (injured and not expected to start if he returns for the NLCS).

16. Corbin Carroll’s combined numbers against pitchers currently on the Phillies’ roster: 27 PA, 21 AB, 4 H, 3 BB, 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 2 HBP, .190/.333/.286 (.619 OPS).

17. Off-topic but remember when the Braves lost both of Spencer Strider’s starts against the Phillies in the 2023 NLDS? Ahahahaahahaha

18. Nick Castellanos this postseason: 25 PA, .391/.440/1.000 (1.440 OPS), 6 R, 4 HR, 5 RBI. He has only struck out 3 times.

    

19. The Phillies offense outscored the Diamondbacks offense 796-746 in the 2023 regular season.

20. Phillies pitchers allowed 715 runs in the 2023 regular season. Arizona pitchers allowed 761.

21. Cherrypicked Dbacks batting averages against Aaron Nola:

    • Pavin Smith - .000 in 5 ABs;

    • Tommy Pham - .111 in 9 ABs;

    • Jace Peterson - .133 in 15 ABs;

    • Ketel Marte - .167 in 6 ABs;

    • Corbin Carroll - .167 in 6 ABs.

22. Johan Rojas might be the best defensive player in baseball. He finished the regular season with 14 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in just 392 innings. Only 14 MLB players accumulated more DRS, and those players averaged 1,140 innings each.

23. Notable Phillies fans include Miles Teller, Rob McElhenney, Tina Fey, Jason Kelce, Aubrey Plaza, Ryan Phillipe, and Will Smith. The only notable Dbacks fan is this guy:

    

24. The 13 current Diamondbacks who have faced Craig Kimbrel are batting a combined .167 against him (7/42), with just 2 extra-base hits.

25. Zack Wheeler has faced the Diamondbacks 11 times in his career. He lasted at least 6 innings in all 11 games, and allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of 11.

26. Bryson Stott has a career slash line of .341/.383/.659 against Arizona.

27. The Phillies are -178 favorites to win the NLCS on Fanduel Sportsbook, implying 64% odds of advancing to the World Series.

28. Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald was overheard cackling and yelling “Attaboy Harper!” after the Phillies’ loss to the Braves in NLDS Game 2.

29. (Ok number 28 was a lie but let’s start spreading that misinformation.)

30. Alec Bohm has a .320 batting average in 25 career at-bats against pitchers currently on the Diamondbacks.

    

31. The Diamondbacks have never beaten the Phillies in the postseason.

32. Current Diamondbacks players have zero extra-base hits against Jose Alvarado in 22 career combined plate appearances.

33. The Diamondbacks once stole Curt Schilling from the Phillies in exchange for Travis Lee, Omar Daal, Vicente Padilla, and Nelson Figueroa. The baseball gods will punish this thievery.

34. If Tommy Henry is cleared to pitch for the Diamondbacks, here are his career numbers in 3 games against the Phils: 14.1 IP, 8.79 ERA, 1.95 WHIP.

35. Including the postseason, Trea Turner is up to 34 stolen bases in 2023 without getting caught.

36. The only thing that actually matters in this series? Dingers and vibes!!!!

    Advantage: Phillies.