Checking in on the 2029 Phillies
The team's future is quietly taking shape.
Your Philadelphia Phillies may actually have a long-term plan in place.
Yes, those Philadelphia Phillies.
Yes, seriously.
Jesús Luzardo’s recent contract extension ensures that all five members of the team’s projected 2026 starting rotation—Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Luzardo, Aaron Nola, and Andrew Painter—will return in 2027. And while Wheeler may retire after the ‘27 season, the other four starters will remain in red pinstripes for a few years beyond that.
With additional long-term contracts in place and minor league reinforcements arriving in the big leagues, it’s getting easier to understand the front office’s vision.
Dave Dombrowski arrived in Philadelphia with a reputation for aggressively pursuing short-term glory at the expense of his teams’ futures. Whether by accident or design, however, that hasn’t been the case during his time with the Phils. The core of the team’s farm system—Painter, Justin Crawford, and Aidan Miller—remains fully intact.
This approach may have cost the team a championship; we’ll never know if a big trade deadline acquisition would have made the difference in any of the last few Octobers. But the organization’s caution could soon pay dividends.
Consider, for example, the 2029 Phillies.
Painter and Crawford will be in their age-25 seasons. Miller will be 24. If all goes well, the three will make major contributions to the team while earning relatively little money.
Pitcher Gage Wood, the team’s 2025 first-round pick, is expected to reach the majors quickly: mlb.com gives him a 2027 ETA. Outfielder Dante Nori, their 2024 first-round pick, could arrive in 2027 as well. Wood will be 25 in 2029 and Nori will be 24.
An infusion of young talent is always welcome, but may be particularly important for a ‘29 Phils team that could feature several 36-year-olds. Bryce Harper was born in late 1992 while Nola, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner are all 1993 babies.
When all is said and done, the 2029 roster could look something like this:
SP - Sánchez; age 32; $5.6 million
SP - Luzardo; age 31; $27.0 million
SP - Painter; age 25; arbitration year 1
SP - Nola; age 36; $24.6 million
SP - Wood; age 25; pre-arbitration
RP - Kerkering; age 28; arbitration year 3
1B - Harper; age 36; $25.4 million
2B - Turner; age 36; $27.2 million
3B - Otto Kemp; age 29; arbitration year 1
SS - Miller; age 24; pre-arbitration
LF - Nori; age 24; pre-arbitration
CF - Crawford; age 25; arbitration year 1
DH - Schwarber; age 36; $30.0 million
(contract data via Spotrac)
That would put the team somewhere in the neighborhood of $160 million for its starting rotation, a reliever, and seven members of its starting lineup.
Baseball’s economics are hard to predict, especially with an expiring collective bargaining agreement on the horizon, but the Phillies’ 2026 payroll is north of $300 million. Assuming the Phillies spend the same amount, $140 million or so can definitely buy a team a heck of a catcher, corner outfielder, bullpen and bench.
The 2029 roster and payroll may look entirely different, of course. There will be injuries and trades. The team will need to take care of the criminally underpaid Sánchez at some point. Not every prospect lives up to expectations.
The most significant variable is whether the Phillies’ current stars will still be any good on the wrong side of 35. Optimists can point to Mike Schmidt winning an MVP in his age-36 season or Dennis Eckersley claiming the award at 37. There have been just nine age 35+ MVP winners in the divisional era (since 1969), however, and four of them were named Barry Bonds. Careers can end fast for players in their 30s.
Schwarber could be a good bet to age well, as the DH role protects him from wear and tear. It’s not hard to imagine Nola being a serviceable fourth-ish starter at 36 after seeing Zack Wheeler’s work in his mid-thirties. Turner as a starting infielder may be a pipe dream, but 36-year-old Harper should still give you something at first base. (The latter will swap out his blood and organs for those of a teenager by then.)
But while plans change, at least the Phillies seem to be starting from a plan. If the mock payroll above is anywhere close to accurate, the organization should be able to spend its way out of some problems.
This is all predicated on the manageable salaries of homegrown talent, to be sure. Everything falls apart if Crawford & Co. fail to develop into talented major leaguers. But you don’t need me to tell you the effects of aging stars and failed prospects on a franchise; we’ve seen it up close.
All we know for now is that there is a path for the Phillies to remain competitive.
Given this franchise’s history, I’ll take it.
Tweets and Skeets of the Week
Very cool to see Jesús Luzardo’s teammates at the press conference to celebrate his new deal.
Another great sight? Zack Wheeler on the mound. The exact timetable for his return remains unclear, but all clues suggest that Wheeler is progressing very well.
Bryce Harper rose to the moment once again in the World Baseball Classic, even if Team USA’s celebration was short-lived.
The mental health of millions of Phillies fans depends on the right arm of a 22-year-old pitcher. What could go wrong?
Thanks for reading!
