Chuck Hixson: What to do With Aaron Nola

On May 4^th, Aaron Nola threw six shutout innings in Miami. The hope was that he had figured something out and was turning the corner on his season. His ERA fell from 6.03 to 5.06. Since then, any hope that fans held for Nola to turn things around has vanished.

After allowing four runs in five innings yesterday against Cincinnati, Nola’s ERA has reached a season-high of 6.04. Obviously, the Phillies can’t continue to run him out there and just hope that their offense can outslug the other team. There would be a lot of nights when that would happen, but many where it would just be a recipe for a loss.

First, what can’t the Phillies do; besides letting him keep pitching at this level.

Trade Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola did not have a no-trade clause inserted into his contract extension, which pays him over $24 million a year through 2030. But in reality, since Nola now has over 10 years of major league service time and the last five – actually, all of them – have been with one team, so he can not be traded without giving his consent to the deal.

That’s not to say that he would never say “yes,” but it does add a degree of difficulty to the situation. The contract adds a much bigger degree of difficulty.

And the contract is a problem in both directions. It’s not just that Nola holds the leverage of consent — it’s that any team acquiring him would be taking on roughly $130 million in guaranteed money for a pitcher who is currently struggling. No team trades for a pitcher on a nine-figure deal and stashes him in the back of the rotation hoping he figures it out. The acquiring team would need to believe the issues are correctable, and that is a very hard sell right now.

There is also the matter of what the Phillies would receive in return. Trade value is tied to performance and remaining cost. When a player is performing well below expectations and earning top-of-the-market money, those two factors pull return value in opposite directions — and not toward Philadelphia’s favor. The Phillies would almost certainly be the ones sweetening the deal rather than benefiting from it, perhaps even eating a portion of the remaining salary just to get a conversation started.

A caller on a Philadelphia sports talk station this morning suggested trading him to the Angels for Mike Trout, because their contracts are similar. First, both contracts do run through 2030, but Trout makes $35.45 million per year until then, about $10 million higher than Nola. Trout has a full no-trade clause in his contract, so they would have the same hurdle that the Phillies would face.

Second, Trout is coming out of some rough seasons and trending higher. The Millville Meteor has 12 home runs this season. While he is only hitting .231, comparable to his past couple of seasons, his OBP (.398) and his OPS (.878) would be his highest since 2022, if they stay where they are now. Unfortunately for Nola and the Phillies, his ERA would be the highest of his career.

The bottom line is this: the Phillies are essentially stuck. Nola has every incentive to stay — he is guaranteed the full $172 million regardless — and any trade scenario requires his blessing, a willing trade partner, and a return package that doesn’t embarrass the organization. None of those three things are easy to obtain under current circumstances, and obtaining all three at once approaches the realm of the impossible.

Can they pull a Castellanos?

In other words, just release him. Technically, yes. Realistically, no. The Phillies are paying $19 million this year for Castellanos to play for the Padres. They would be paying roughly $112 million for Nola to either sit home or pitch for another team. You know some team would get him for the major league minimum and do what they can to “fix” him. If they succeeded, that would make the Phillies the laughingstock of baseball. Perhaps of the entire sports world.

Figure out what’s wrong

Face the facts; Nola could be wearing down. According to the PITCHf/x system, Nola has thrown over 30,000 pitches in his career. That’s a lot, and remember, no pitcher knows how many pitches their arm has in it before things just start to go wrong. There are arguments about him not getting calls that he used to get because of the ABS system, but that doesn’t account for the struggles he had last season when there was no ABS.

Opposing hitters are slamming the fastball and his cutter is getting up in the zone and staying flat, also getting hit hard by opposing batters.

His velocity is down. That generally either means the gas tank is nearing empty or there’s an injury. In some ways, an injury might be relatively good news. That would be fixable.

He’s hurt, right? (wink, wink, nod, nod)

It’s the old phantom injury routine. It’s a trick that was used routinely in the minors before the implementation of the Developmental List. There was always a favorite injury that players would suddenly come down with when the team either wanted to move them off of the roster, get them some work with coaches in Clearwater, or any other reason.

For a while, two favorite phantom injuries in the Phillies minor league system were shin splints – Jorge Valendia, who is now in the Phillies front office – got them every time the IronPigs needed a roster spot. His timing was impeccable. I remember another writer asking him, “which shin is it?” Valendia just waved at us and kept walking – looking pain free, I would add. My personal favorite was Turf Toe. This is in an era where there were no turf fields, especially in the minors. I once remarked to manager Dave Brundage that there had to be a Clearwater Institute for Turf Toe Research and Rehabilitation somewhere.

Move him to the bullpen

Opponents are batting .194 against Nola in the first inning of his 10 starts and he has a 3.60 ERA in the first inning of games. No, a reliever making $24 million is not a good thing; it’s not even a thing. But it’s the second and third innings where he gets into trouble.

The bottom line…

Something will have to be done. Having a guy with an ERA of six-plus pitch as a starter every five days just won’t work. Maybe tweaking his repertoire of pitches or his mix of pitches in a game would help. Rely less on velocity. Aaron Nola has been huge for the Phillies in the past. Right now, they don’t need the Nola of 2018 (17-6, 2.37). After all, he was just 25 then, and youth is one thing you can’t get back.