Do Newer Baseball Stats Make Any Sense?

I interviewed a young person to find out.

and

Jun 04, 2023

We are all, in some way, a product of the year we are born. You can reliably predict a baseball fan’s age by the stats they focus on.

Batting average and RBI? Ok boomer.

On-base percentage and slugging percentage? You’re about my age. You probably read Moneyball in 2004 and called it a day.

And the young people? What tf are they up to nowadays with newer stats? Should we care about FIP or WAR? Why are they adding “+” to everything (OPS+, ERA+, etc.)? What is wrong with Original OPS or ERA Classic?

In search of answers, I found a young person here in my own home: My oldest kid, 12-year old Jack Foley. He kindly agreed to put down the Playstation controller for a moment and help out with a primer on advanced stats. We did this in a written Q&A format to minimize the amount of time we actually had to spend together.

John:

We all know young people are generally useless. But you’re helpful for exactly four things: (1) moving something heavy; (2) circumventing an MLB app blackout; (3) remembering where we parked; and (4) explaining newer statistics.

Jack:

Is there a question in there?

John:

We will get to the questions.

Jack:

Mom says you need to stop spending all our money on 2008 t-shirts.

John:

Mom says a lot of things. Let’s get started.

Question 1.

As an Old, I look at a hitter’s batting average, HRs, on-base percentage, and OPS to decide whether he’s any good. I also like to look at runs scored and RBI. Because even though those stats depend on teammates, in my opinion they still tell you a lot.

What should I be looking at instead? And keep it simple for now. Like, slightly advanced stats.

Jack:

To start, we can look at an advanced replacement for batting average. While batting average is obviously very useful, there is a lot of luck involved, which can result in unsustainable averages. For example, a player may be batting .100, but they may have been robbed on many should-be hits, where the defender makes a great diving catch, or the 110 mph liner goes straight to the shortstop. When just a couple of these unlucky outcomes start going their way, which they inevitably will, that player’s stats will skyrocket, even when their level of play remains the same. The opposite can of course be true as well. Some players with higher averages may be benefiting off of lots of low quality contact and bloopers resulting in hits, resulting in an inflated BA.

This is where our first stat comes in. Batting Average on Balls in Play, also known as BABIP, helps us assess the extent to which a BA is affected by luck. Players with a low BABIP are likely getting unlucky when putting a ball in play, pushing their batting average down. Players with extremely high BABIPs are dealing with the opposite, getting very lucky and having an artificially high BA. BABIP helps us determine a hitter’s level of play much more accurately than batting average alone, which can often showcase unsustainably high or low levels of production.

Home Runs are a very reliable way to measure power. There’s no debating that. However, there are some other ways to measure power. What are some things we can see across all home runs? Well first, the ball is usually hit pretty hard. Exit Velocity is how we measure this. It’s pretty easy to understand. Exit Velo is just how hard the ball is hit off the bat. Another stat we use to measure hitting is launch angle. Launch angle is the angle at which the ball leaves the bit after getting hit. The higher the angle, the higher the ball goes. If the ball leaves the bat going down, the ball will go downwards. The same is true for if the ball leaves the bat going up, or down the middle. Launch angles under 10 are usually grounders. 10 - 25 is often liners. 25 - 50 is usually fly balls and above 50 is pop ups. As you can imagine, the desired range is in between line drives and fly balls. The average launch angle of a hitter can tell us a lot about them, as if they average far too high or low, they are probably not the best hitter, and if they are in that sweet spot between liners and fly balls, they are likely a great player.

John:

Ok. There’s a lot to digest there, you are already confusing me and many of the other Olds. Let’s clear up a few things:

On BABIP - If I’m absolutely crushing the ball, won’t my BABIP be high because I’m killing it, not because of good luck? If I hit a home run every time my BABIP will be 1.000.

On exit velo/launch angles - Lots of velo/angle combinations can make a ball leave the park. Why is it valuable to know how a home run hitter hit the home run? If it’s gone it’s gone.

Jack:

To answer your question about BABIB, while good hitting will result in a higher BABIP, sometimes players with low batting averages can be playing just as well as players with high averages. If you have a low BA, you could just not be playing well. However, the defenses you face could be consistently making hard catches against you. The defensive performance from the opposition will even out over time, meaning that if you have a low BABIP, when the unlucky streak is over, your stats will go back up, and the opposite can apply for abnormally high BABIPs.

For exit velo and launch angle, the simplest way to explain it is that if you are consistently hitting the ball hard, and you are consistently hitting it at a good angle, you are probably playing well.

John:

And if the ball is going over the fence, you are probably playing well. HRs tell me that. But ok.

Let’s shift gears and talk about pitching. Is there anything I need to look at besides ERA to see if a pitcher is any good?

Jack:

One great stat we can use for pitching is ERA+. ERA+ is pretty simple. The league average is 100. However far above or below 100 you are, that is how above or below league average you are. For example, Aaron Nola this season has a 91 ERA+. This means he has been 9% below league average this year. That’s not great, but for his career, he has a 115 ERA+. That means over the course of his career, he has been 15% better than the average pitcher, which is obviously pretty good. As a side note, OPS+ is basically the exact same thing, except for hitters.

Another very helpful stat is Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP. FIP is like ERA except they factor out the supporting defense by only focusing on the hitting outcomes a pitcher has the most control over, like homers, strikeouts, walks, etc. While ERA factors out errors, it does not account for bad defensive plays not scored as errors, or plays where the pitcher is bailed out by a strong supporting defense. Using Aaron Nola as an example again, in 2022 he had a regular season ERA of 3.25. However, if you only factor in events that he has full control over, which is what Fielding Independent Pitching does, Nola’s FIP drops all the way down to a 2.58. Any stat that uses defense is hard to calculate exactly, but FIP does a pretty good job of showing a pitcher's true production without needing to take their supporting cast into account.

Aaron Nola excited to finally experience a home playoff game as the Phillies' Game 3 starter

John:

I think ERA+ illustrates why it’s hard for these stats to cross generations. After years and years of watching baseball, I know a guy with a 3.00 ERA is good and a guy with a 5.00 ERA is bad. But it’s meaningless for me to hear that Nola is performing 9% worse than the league average.

If you grow up consistently seeing a pitcher’s ERA+, I suppose you’ll form the same points of reference that I did with ERA. And I can see why it would be useful when comparing players across different generations—It was easier to post a 3.00 ERA in some years than it was in others. Am on board with this one, I think.

You mentioned defense. Defensive stats still seem like a mess to me. Errors aren’t a great metric because a slow player can’t drop a ball that he never gets to in the first place. You hear that a lot. But have young people actually found anything better yet?

Jack:

Defensive metrics are extremely hard to calculate, and may not always be accurate. With that, however, there are some defensive advanced stats we can use to calculate a position player’s value in the field. One of these stats is Outs Above Average, or OAA. This calculates the amount of outs a player’s defensive skill will get their team. Zero OAA would be perfectly neutral, not positively or negatively impacting your team with your defensive skills. Above zero OAA means you are positively impacting your team defensively, and a negative OAA means the opposite. In 2023, Kyle Schwarber has a -8 OAA. That means over the course of this season, he has lost us 8 outs as compared to a league-average left fielder. However, Brandon Marsh’s 3 OAA means his defensive skills have awarded us 3 more outs this season than a league-average centerfielder.

There are many, many more advanced defensive statistics, but in my opinion, outs above average is the easiest to understand. While it’s not perfect, OAA definitely helps measure the defensive performance of a player.

John:

And some of these defensive metrics like OAA factor into WAR?

I like the WAR concept. It’s reasonably intuitive. A player is worth a certain number of wins over a replacement-level player. But nobody seems to know how it’s calculated and, in fact, competing websites calculate it in different ways. So I don’t know how to trust it.

Meanwhile, Baseball Reference says Ryan Howard’s career WAR is 14.7. Am I supposed to believe that over the course of his career, Howard was only worth 14-15 wins relative to a replacement-level player?

Ryan Howard Net Worth 2023: Baseball Salary Asset Career Age

Jack:

WAR definitely does have some flaws. Ryan Howard obviously did not only add 15 wins across his whole career, and it is weird how it is calculated differently on lots of websites. However, overall it does do a great job of showing the value of different players. With some exceptions (like Ryan Howard), the best players have the highest WARs. Baseball Reference WAR says that Barry Bonds is the best ever, followed very closely by Babe Ruth. Most people have one of the two as their GOAT for baseball. In almost every situation, a high WAR means a good player.

John:

Well I’ll buy into WAR when they adjust the formula to respect the Big Piece. In the meantime, I can find Bonds and Ruth in the top 3 all-time for HRs.

This has been slightly helpful. I’m interested to see what my fellow Olds have to say in the comments. We’ll do it again soon and get into some of the really advanced stats.

Exclusive new artwork from Ragnaroktopus Ink.

Tweets of the week.

Kyle Schwarber struggles at times, sure. But he’s basically a Hall of Famer in June:
https://twitter.com/PanasonicDX4500/status/1665453592382259200?s=20
Fellow 2022 Phillies free agent signing Nick Castellanos is playing even better:
https://twitter.com/CSeidmanNBCS/status/1665444669327540225?s=20
We’re all disappointed in the Phillies so far, but let’s not do this shit with Philly Rob:
https://twitter.com/SportsRadioWIP/status/1663949725953818637?s=20
Where were you when Drew Ellis saved the season:
https://twitter.com/ellen_adair/status/1665454195607064576?s=20
Phils have won a couple in a row, but there’s still a long way to go:
https://twitter.com/TerryFranconia/status/1665463439773384705?s=20

This week in 2008.

The 2008 Phils were 35-26 at the end of June 4, in first place by 1.5 games.

After an off day on May 29, the Phillies beat the brakes off the Marlins on May 30, 12-3. Brett Myers struck out 11 in 8 innings. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Chris Coste hit home runs.

On the last day of May, the Marlins beat the Phillies 7-3. But Utley hit a home run for the third straight game, leading the majors with 19 HR and 49 RBI. He was slashing .311/.392/.653 at the end of the game.

In the series finale on June 1, the Phils beat the Marlins 7-5. Starting pitcher Jamie Moyer improved to 8-0 lifetime against the fish. Utley hit a HR for the 4th straight game (20 overall). Shane Victorino extended a hit streak to 13 games and Brad Lidge picked up his 13th save.

On June 2, Mike Lieberthal signed a one-day contract to retire as a Phillie. The Phils beat the Reds at home that night, 5-4. Utley extended his HR streak to 5(!) straight games. Pedro Feliz and Coste hit back-to-back HRs. And the Fightins won again the next night, 3-2. Jimmy Rollins went 3/4 with 2 stolen bases, and improved to 24 consecutive steals without getting caught.

The bats fell silent on June 4 against Edinson Volquez, as the Reds beat the Phils 2-0. Only 2 hits for the good guys. All in all, though, a pretty good week.

Phillie you forgot about.

Nobody forgot about the Phillies’ Jake Arrieta experiment, but I think many of us forgot that Arrieta was actually really good for a while. Take a look at what Nola and Arrieta did in May 2018: