Guest Feature from Lauren Amour
It's time to talk about the starting rotation.
It’s time to address the elephant in the room…the starting rotation.
It really started to hit me on the Friday of Memorial Day weekend when I received a tweet notification from The Athletic’s Matt Gelb that made me question the state of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Gelb tweeted that Dylan Covey would start Sunday’s game against Spencer Strider and the Atlanta Braves on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
Most fans were probably wondering who Covey even is, considering the Phillies just claimed him off of waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 20.
Covey, a 31-year-old right-hander from California, appeared in one game for the Phils as a “bulk boy,” meaning the pitcher that gets to pitch a bulk of the innings following an opener. Covey followed Matt Strahm on May 23 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and although it wasn’t the cleanest of outings, the newcomer was solid.
Covey threw five frames, allowing five hits, a run, a walk and striking out six. It wasn’t too shabby for his Phillies debut, but throwing him out there against Strider at Truist Park in the red jerseys on Sunday Night Baseball seemed like a recipe for trouble.
His outing played out even worse than originally thought—not even making it out of the first inning and allowing five earned runs (seven runs in total) on six hits in the Phillies’ 11-4 loss in the series finale against the Braves.
Per NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman, Covey was the first starter in the majors since 2017 to allow as many hits, runs and homers as he did without finishing the first inning. In fact, it was so bad that it’s only occurred six times in National League history.
Philadelphia is 1-9 in games started by the fifth turn in the rotation. They're also winless when wearing the red jerseys, so I believe they should be properly dealt with and completely forgotten about, kind of like the mutant Phanatic from 2020.
There’s simply no way Covey can continue to be in the rotation, but the Phillies are so desperate for a fifth starter, Rob Thomson is apparently willing to throw any old Joe Schmo on the mound. As June begins, however, that can’t be the case anymore.
But what options do they really have? Let’s take a look at how their depth options are faring in Triple-A following their demotions from the majors:
Bailey Falter: 5.13 ERA, 40.1 IP, 50 H, 30 R, 23 ER, 8 BB, 28 K (MLB)
5.40 ERA, 11.2 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 7 K (MiLB)
Cristopher Sanchez: 6.23 ERA, 4.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (MLB)
5.02 ERA, 37.2 IP, 32 H, 21 ER, 26 BB, 36 K (MiLB)
McKinley Moore (not a president from the 1800s): 18.90 ERA, 3.1 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 2 K (MLB)
1.50 ERA, 12 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 17 BB, 20 K (MiLB)
Erich Uelmen (WHO?): 9.00 ERA, 1 IP, 2 H, ER, 2 BB, K (MLB)
2.19 ERA, 12.1 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 7 K (MiLB)
Michael Plassmeyer (does he count?): 6.59 ERA, 41 IP, 46 H, 32 R, 30 ER, 21 BB, 44 K
So, yeah, not great. Perhaps the only one that has a case to get the call to the majors soon is Nick Nelson, but he’s been dealing with a left hamstring injury since late March. When he’s been able to be on the mound, though, he’s pitched to a 1.25 ERA in 21.2 frames of work across three levels in the minors while on a rehab assignment. His timetable to return is unclear.
And you may be asking yourself, wait, didn’t the Phillies just have three top pitching prospects—including the top right-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball? Yes, you would be correct. Couldn’t they be called up? The answer is no.
It’s hard not to think about what a different state the Phillies rotation might be in right now if Andrew Painter did not suffer a right UCL sprain in spring training that placed him on the 60-day injured list. He has yet to return to play, but according to Destiny Lugardo of Phillies Nation, Painter threw a modified “side box” on May 23 in Clearwater.
Thomson explained that Painter “was on the rubber with the catcher up for 10 pitches, then moved halfway down and moved the catcher back for 10 pitches,” and added that he “feels great.” Still, there’s no definitive timetable for his return, but the Phillies hope “that he’ll be ready and healthy to contribute to the big league club around midsummer at the earliest.”
This news was more encouraging than I thought, but I’ll try not to get my hopes up.
(Please save us, Andrew.)
Before Painter’s arrival, Mick Abel was the biggest deal in the Phillies’ minor league system, but unfortunately, he’s not on a fast track to the majors like his teammate. The 21-year-old has limped to a 5.45 ERA in eight starts for Double-A Reading this year, and although his K/9 is still solid at 10.6, his BB/9 has risen to 5.2 in 2023 from 4.2 in 2022 in 34.2 frames of work.
Abel’s best outings came on April 29 and May 5—in which he tossed six one-run innings in each. The May 5 start brought his season ERA down to 2.53, but he’s struggled since then, with nine earned runs in 3.2 frames on May 12 and six ER in 4.2 innings on May 26. He certainly hasn’t been consistent, and therefore is in no position to help the major league club.
As the 2022 season was nearing its end, there were rumors circulating that former fifth-rounder Griff McGarry could get the call to the majors amid Kyle Gibson’s second-half struggles. That never came to fruition. Although McGarry’s got elite stuff, he continues to grapple with his command. Those troubles were on full display during spring training, and he eventually wound up on the injured list with an oblique strain.
He’s now with Reading, and his 1.86 ERA inflated to 5.27 after a disastrous outing on Tuesday that saw him surrender seven runs (six earned) in four innings. Walks continue to be a problem for the 23-year-old, too, with a 3.7 BB/9 thus far and a career 5.3 BB/9 in three minor league seasons. Command is the primary thing standing between him and his MLB debut, says The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey.
“For most of [McGarry’s] career, he’s had trouble landing [the ball] in the strike zone,” wrote Coffey. “If he can do that consistently at Double-A, the Phillies will consider giving him the call. They certainly have a need for starting pitching, and McGarry could fill it.”
Time will tell, I suppose, for this trio. Sadly, none of them are in a position to help the Phillies’ immediate need for starting pitching.
While the fifth starter has been a black hole, the four other spots in the rotation haven’t been where they need to be, either.
Aaron Nola and the long ball is a match made in hell. What is with Nola’s propensity for allowing home runs all of the sudden? Sure, this problem dates back to last season and perhaps beyond that, but it’s gotten increasingly worse this year. I mean, it’s every single start, and it’s becoming much more of a problem than I initially anticipated.
In his start against the Braves on May 25, Nola allowed a season-high three home runs in six innings. He’s allowed at least one home run in nine out of 11 starts this year. He’s walking more batters, and striking out less. His K/9 has decreased from 10.3 in 2022 to 7.9 this year, while his BB/9 has increased to 2.0 from a league-leading 1.3 last season.
Although he’s been going the distance in most of his starts (68.2 total innings), he hasn’t been reliable or consistent, and isn’t at all where he needs to be with a 4.59 ERA and 4.32 FIP …especially in a contract year. I’ve been a staunch Nola supporter and defender, but I believe the ace argument may have finally been answered this season.
Like Nola, Zack Wheeler hasn’t quite been himself this season. Maybe he hasn’t been as “off” as Nola has, but he still isn’t yielding the results he’s expected to, nor what fans have become accustomed to. Unlike Nola, though, Wheels tossed his best outing of the season on May 27, fanning 12 batters in eight shutout innings against a talented Atlanta lineup.
Another notable difference between Wheeler and Nola? Wheeler is usually able to get himself back on track mid-start when he begins to lose steam, but Nola seems to hit a wall and doesn’t look back. It’s one of the main reasons why Wheeler has had the edge over Nola across the last few seasons.
Hopefully, Wheeler’s last start is a sign of better things to come for the right-hander. The Phillies sure could use an ace right now.
Taijuan Walker was the Phillies big addition to the rotation this offseason. Initially, I was excited by this signing because Walker seemed to always handle the Phillies with ease when facing them. He has a career 3.72 ERA across 48.1 innings against Philadelphia, which isn’t bad at all. I even named my fantasy team after him: Taijuan Skywalker.
Walker has had a few horrid outings this year, particularly an eight-run appearance on May 1 in Los Angeles and on May 17 in San Francisco in which he didn’t even escape the first inning. He mixed in some serviceable starts though, including back-to-back six-inning appearances on May 7 and 12, and 6 ⅔ on May 26 in Atlanta, where he earned the win despite allowing a season-high 10 hits.
Overall, the veteran right-hander has walked far too many batters and, like the rest of the rotation, has underachieved and been highly inconsistent. He needs to right the ship, and soon.
For some reason, I was under the impression that getting Ranger Suarez back would solve all of the Phillies rotation problems. I don’t know why, it seems so naive and stupid in hindsight. Not only does the rotation have a multitude of issues (as outlined above) but Suarez hasn’t been where he’s needed to be either.
However, he hasn’t been as horrendous as his 7.13 ERA suggests. The Phillies defense hasn’t done him any favors, as exemplified by a whopping 3.11 difference between his ERA and 4.02 FIP. It’s important to keep in mind that Suarez pitched a career-high 155.1 innings last year, as well as 14.2 in the postseason. It’s possible he’s still fatigued on top of making his way back from a left elbow strain that kept him sidelined for the first month of the 2023 campaign. Still, given the current state of the Phillies rotation, the 26-year-old must be better; His outing against the Mets on May 30 signaled to me that he will be okay, though.
Suarez had a shaky first few months of the season in 2022, too. In April and May, he had 4.69 ERA with opponents slashing .278/.354/.429 against him. Through June to September, he possessed a 3.19 ERA with opponents batting .236 alongside a .680 OPS, while K’ing 87 batters in 107.1 innings. This run was highlighted by an incredible July, in which he did not allow an ER in three straight starts.
It’s all but guaranteed the Phillies will trade for starting pitching at the deadline, because although they are hoping for Painter to be in a position to contribute to the big league club by midsummer, they should not bet on it. So, who should they trade for? What will it likely cost? And what do they do in the meantime? The deadline isn’t until Aug. 1, but I believe they can stay afloat until then.
Adding Matt Strahm back into the rotation seems like the most logical solution to me, which is ironic considering I didn’t even want him in the rotation in the first place. Plus, he’s been successful in the bullpen (that’s in need of an arm with Jose Alvarado on the injured list) allowing just one run in 9.2 innings of work. But the Phillies need a fifth starter now and they simply don’t have any viable options in the minor leagues, and it sounds like Covey is heading to the bullpen, per Gelb.
However, according to Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies are not planning to place Strahm back in the rotation anytime soon, with their reasoning being that they need him to “get meaningful outs in September as much as May.” Lauber goes on to say that Strahm reentering the rotation as a full-fledged starter is viewed more as a “break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option.”
But isn’t this an emergency? The team has no fifth starter. They still haven’t named a starter for Saturday against the Washington Nationals. And Strahm won’t have any meaningful outs to get in September if the Phillies keep trending the way they are. If there’s a silver lining from all of this, it’s that Strahm is a gamer.
“I get my injury history. I get my innings history; I get all that,” he said. “And I lean on [the team] a lot to know what’s good for me. Because I don’t know what’s good for me. I’m just here to compete. I’ll throw 140 pitches in one night if they let me.”
Strahm did his job in seven starts while Suarez was out, with an ERA just below 4.00 in 27.2 innings pitched. He was unexpectedly the Phillies best starter during the first month of the season. I understand he’s on a pitch limit, but why not slot him back into the rotation in order to stabilize that fifth spot until you can acquire a better option?
Now, let’s take a look at three potential “better” options who could be on the move at the trade deadline, assuming the Phillies get their act together and shape up to be a contender as they were expected to, and therefore, are in a position to buy.
Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox continue to be a hot mess, all but signaling a probable fire sale at the deadline. Cease will likely be one of the most attractive names come the end of July, regardless of his shaky start to the season.
Through his first five starts, Cease pitched brilliantly, with 34 Ks in 26.1 innings pitched to the tune of a 2.73 ERA. Opponents managed just a .571 OPS against him during that span. In the seven starts that followed, outside of a pair of solid outings on May 13 and 23, Cease has regressed. Batters have slashed .285/.358/.486 when facing him and his strikeouts have been down. There’s no reason to believe he can’t bound back, though, especially after fanning eight in his start on May 28.
Last year, the 27-year-old right-hander finished second in the AL Cy Young Award voting following career-bests in ERA (2.20), innings pitched (184), and strikeouts (227) in 2022. He ranked third and fifth in MLB in ERA and strikeouts, respectively. Cease is currently on a one-year, $5.7 million deal and is eligible for arbitration at the end of year; He’s not set to become a free agent until 2026.
Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Giolito is yet another Sox pitcher that could be on the move at the deadline. A one-time All-Star in 2019, Giolito has returned to form after a shaky 2022 season. He has a 4.08 ERA across 68.1 innings in 12 starts thus far this season, as well as a 9.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.
The 28-year-old finished within the top 10 in the AL Cy Young Award twice, in 2019 and 2020, and in his All-Star season, had a career-low 3.41 ERA along with 228 strikeouts in 176.2 innings, three complete games, and two shutouts.
Giolito is set to become a free agent at the end of the year, meaning he would likely be a rental unless Philadelphia elects to sign him to a new contract in the offseason. Notably, Giolito previously turned down a four-year, $50 million extension prior to the 2021 season, and stated that he was looking for a $7.5 million AAV.
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Rodriguez, 30, is currently in the midst of a breakout year for the Tigers (although he was just placed on the 15-day IL), making him an early AL Cy Young Award favorite. His 2.13 ERA is fourth-best in MLB, while accumulating a 2.5 WAR (2nd amongst qualified SPs) and racking up 67.2 innings (9th).
Don't look now, but Detroit is currently in second place in the AL Central and just 1.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins in the standings with a somewhat surprising 26-28 record. Despite this, the Tigers are still likely to be sellers at the deadline, with Rodriguez as their top trade chip.
Despite his stellar production, Rodríguez wouldn't cost much at the deadline if traded because he has an opt-out in his five-year, $77 million contract after the season.
The Phillies arguably lost the 2022 World Series due to a lack of starting pitching depth. Their rotation, although strong all postseason long, was no match for the Houston Astros’ across six games. Therefore, you’d think Dave Dombrowski and co. will upgrade that position if they intend to make another run and finish what they started last season.
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Definitely retire the red jerseys. The pin stripe bespoke looking uniforms are way better. I saw them help defeat the Astros in the World Series.