Hollywood and Cooperstown

Cole Hamels' Hall of Fame case is stronger than you think

Cole Hamels appears on the National Baseball Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this year. He joins former Phillies teammates Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Bobby Abreu, among others.

Will we see four representatives from the 85-win 2006 Phils in Cooperstown?

Well, no. Probably not.

A player needs votes from 75% of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) electorate in a given year for induction. If he fails to reach that threshold within ten years—or falls below 5% in any one year—he drops off the BBWAA ballot, his fate then left to the Hall’s “Era Committees” (formerly known as the Veterans Committee).

Utley reached 39.8% in his second year on the ballot last winter. Abreu (sixth year) reached 19.5% and Rollins (fourth year) reached 18.0%. Of the three, only Utley seems to have favorable odds to eventually crack 75%.

But what do we make of Hamels’ chances?

Hamels celebrates throwing a no-hitter in his final game with the Phillies (2015)

The lefty racked up 163 wins over his 15-year major league career, striking out 2,560 batters and posting a 3.43 ERA. He also logged a 1.183 career WHIP and amassed 59.0 bWAR.

The median numbers among the 69 Hall of Famers with at least 200 career starts: 254 wins, 2,212 strikeouts, 3.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 65.4 bWAR.

At first glance, Hamels’ win total looks disqualifying. But remember that our Hall of Fame sample dates back to the very beginning of the game. While Cy Young racked up a staggering 511 career wins between 1890 and 1911, he threw 749 complete games in 815 starts. Modern pitchers are utilized differently and can’t be held to the same standards. It’s unlikely that we will ever see another player reach 300 wins.

Among all major league pitchers born after 1979, only Justin Verlander (266) tops our median HoF mark of 254 wins. Hamels ranks ninth in that group, behind one player already in the Hall of Fame (CC Sabathia) and several likely future Hall of Famers (Verlander, Kershaw, and Scherzer, for example).

Data via stathead.com

Similarly, the league’s average ERA has fluctuated significantly over the decades. Using ERA+, a metric that adjust ERA to account for changes in the league over time, Hamels’ career mark of 123 is actually better than the median starting pitcher already in the Hall (121).

Our hero’s case now starts to look a lot stronger:

• His win total is top-10 for his generation;

• His ERA+ is solidly in Hall of Fame territory (just 29 of 69 current HoF starters top it);

• His strikeout total is solidly in Hall of Fame territory (just 22 of 69 current HoF starters top it);

• His WHIP is solidly in Hall of Fame territory (just 32 of 69 current HoF starters top it); and

• His bWAR is in Hall of Fame territory, even if well below the median (48 of 69 current HoF starters accumulated more bWAR).

In addition, Hamels’ career K/9 figure is 8.5. Of our 69 Hall of Famer starters, just four—Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Nolan Ryan, and Sandy Koufax—best Hollywood in that category. Pretty good company.

Hamels’ 2.6 BB/9 mark is better than 24 current HoF starters, and just 22 HoF starters can claim an H/9 ratio better than Hamels’ 8.1.

When I floated Hamels’ candidacy in social media posts, more than a few replies said “his numbers don’t scream Hall of Fame” (or something along those lines). And I agree. If we compare number 35 to Walter Johnson or Christy Mathewson, then sure, his numbers fall short. It wouldn’t be a grave injustice if Hamels gets snubbed.

But not every Hall of Famer is an inner-circle Hall of Famer. Among the rank and file starting pitchers found in Cooperstown, the numbers say that Hamels would fit right in.

Need more? Let’s not forget that Hamels was the 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP. In his full career, he maintained a 3.41 ERA and 1.096 WHIP over 100.1 postseason innings.

A Cole Hamels Hall of Fame discussion isn’t complete without a Felix Hernandez comparison. The two entered the league around the same time (Hernandez in 2005, Hamels in 2006) and put up eerily similar numbers. They are separated by six wins, 36 strikeouts, and one hundredth of a run in ERA. Hernandez once threw a perfect game and Hamels once threw a no-hitter.

King Felix reached a higher peak, as evidenced by the Cy Young award and two ERA titles on his resume. But Hamels pitched better in his non-peak seasons and Hernandez can’t match Hamels’ postseason success. In fact, Hernandez never played a single postseason game.

In the end, it’s hard to find two players with more similar Hall of Fame credentials. This is relevant because Hernandez received votes on 20.6% of BBWAA ballots in 2025 (his first year of eligibility) and that number is expected to jump in 2026.

Those interested can read more about the Hall of Fame cases for Utley and Rollins here.

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Tweets and skeets of the week

• Two years for J.T. Realmuto seems very fair. Given the lack of alternatives, it’s hard to imagine the Phillies letting him walk.

  

• What a nightmare this would be:

  

• Right-handed hitter Ketel Marte and his 2025 OPS of .893? Yes please.

  

• The Phillies released info on tickets for the 2026 MLB All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park. Many partial season ticket holders will be disappointed.

  

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