It's Opening Day! Again.

Should we believe that this Phillies season will end differently?

Mar 26, 2026

We made it through another winter, friends. It was cold, it was gray, and at times it felt like it would last the rest of our lives.

But we made it.

Our reward is Opening Day. At 4:15 p.m. Eastern on Thursday afternoon, Cristopher Sánchez will unleash the first pitch of the 2026 season, and your Philadelphia Phillies will begin the franchise’s 144th annual campaign.

141 of the previous 143 seasons didn’t end the way we hoped. Should we expect this one to be any different?

The knee-jerk reaction is no. This particular collection of Philadelphia baseballers seems to be on a downward trajectory: a World Series loss to the Astros, followed by an NLCS loss to the Diamondbacks, followed by NLDS losses to the Mets and Dodgers.

But after thinking about it a little more… Well, the answer is still no. The aforementioned Dodgers remain an absolute juggernaut. The Phils’ stars are not getting younger. And with each postseason failure, the tension builds and the team seems to play even tighter than the year before.

HOWEVER.

This is not a day for heartless, rational analysis. The beauty of Opening Day is that anything is possible. It may not be probable that the Phils win it all. But they sure could.

With that in mind, here are four reasons to believe.

1) Bryce Harper could always go nuclear.

One of the most fascinating aspects of Bryce Harper’s time in Philadelphia is how closely it mirrors his time in DC.

In seven years with the Nationals: .279/.388/.512 (.900 OPS), 184 HR, 521 RBI, 75 SB

In seven years with the Phillies: .281/.386/.526 (.912 OPS), 179 HR, 530 RBI, 77 SB

But while the seven-season numbers look consistent in the aggregate, Harper’s year-to-year variation is significant. A .768 OPS in 2014. A 1.109 OPS in 2015. 42 home runs in 2021. 28 home runs in 2022.

2025 was a bit of a down year for our hero: .261/.357/.487 (.844 OPS) with 27 home runs in 132 games. But he is fully healthy entering 2026, we saw some of that old Bryce Harper magic in the World Baseball Classic, and he’s carrying a chip on his shoulder over Dave Dombrowski’s “not elite” commentary.

Given his past performance swings, would it shock anyone to see MV3 back among the league’s best hitters this year?

2) The pitching will win games on its own.

Sánchez, Zack Wheeler (progressing well in his recovery, by all accounts), and Jesús Luzardo give the Phillies three legitimate Cy Young candidates. A healthy Aaron Nola makes a hell of a number four. And at the bottom of the rotation we find rookie Andrew Painter, one of the most heralded prospects to ever make his way through the organization.

Jhoan Duran will close out tight games, of course, and there’s a whole slew of guys behind him who can handle the high-leverage innings in between.

If you believe that good pitching beats good hitting, this just might be the team that could shut down Los Angeles. They have a better shot than most anyone else, at least. And over the summer they should win an absolute ton of low-scoring games.

3) Schwarbombs.

A stellar starting pitching performance isn’t the only way a player can win a baseball game on his own. Sometimes a guy can just hit a big home run. Or two. Or four.

Kyle Schwarber is coming off a 56-HR season and it will be fun to see what he can do for an encore.

There was a span of 20 games in 2021 when Schwarber hit 16 homers for the Nationals. Could Schwarber unleash that kind of hell on teams this October?

Not particularly likely, but certainly not impossible.

4) Get to the postseason enough times and something good will happen.

The previous golden eras of Phillies baseball provide some lessons relevant to our current situation.

The Phils won 292 regular season games in the three seasons from 1976 through 1978. After finally breaking through in 1980 with a championship, they were bounced from the NLDS in 1981 and lost the 1983 World Series.

The 2008 Phillies, meanwhile, were surrounded by postseason failures in 2007, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

This phenomenon isn’t unique to Philadelphia; the stars really need to align perfectly for a championship season. Sometimes it seems impossible, even with an incredible amount of talent on the roster.

But it takes just one year to break through and win it all. One year to change everything. Until a group of guys does it, it’s always going to feel like they’re not special enough to do it. That was true for Mike Schmidt and company, and it remains true for Bryce Harper and the boys.

Play ball.

Free stuff!

One cool thing about opening my own retail store is that I have a nearly endless supply of merch to give away. Any free subscribers who upgrade to a paid subscription this week will receive their choice of the following t-shirts (designs by Philly’s own dhwani and phillygoat):