The 2026 Phillies Pitching Staff
⚾ We demand pitchers. Do not even f**king think about giving us belly-itchers.
We can’t blame the pitching.
While the Phillies offense no-showed in the 2025 NLDS, the team’s pitchers posted a sparkling 2.87 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. They did this against Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and the rest of the mighty Dodgers. And they did it without Zack Wheeler, who sports the lowest career postseason WHIP of all time.
The starting pitching was stellar in the regular season as well, throwing more innings than any other rotation in baseball and registering a 3.53 ERA, second only to the Rangers. Phillies relievers had a 4.27 season ERA—20th in baseball—but the bullpen looked very different down the stretch with Jhoan Duran.
Expect similar success from the Phillies’ arms in 2026.
The rotation
RHP Zack Wheeler (signed through 2027, will earn $42 million in 2026)
Wheeler underwent surgery to treat vascular thoracic outlet syndrome on September 23. While there are no guarantees when it comes to health issues, Wheeler is expected to make a full recovery and return early in the 2026 season (think April/May).
LHP Cristopher Sanchez (signed through 2030, will earn $3.5 million in 2026)
Sanchez’s contract is one of the most team-friendly deals in baseball. He went 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA in 32 starts and was the team’s unquestioned ace after Wheeler’s season ended.
RHP Aaron Nola (signed through 2030, will earn $24.6 million in 2026)
A healthy and effective Nola could give the Phils a third ace at the top of their rotation. His 6.01 ERA in 2025 across 17 starts was by far the worst of his career. But we know what he can do when he’s at his best, especially in even-numbered years: a 2.37 ERA in 2018, a 3.28 ERA in 2020, a 3.25 ERA in 2022, and a 3.57 ERA in 2024.
LHP Jesus Luzardo (under club control through 2026, expected to earn $12 million in arbitration)
The Phillies acquired Luzardo for prospects Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd in December 2024. Neither prospect played well in 2025, and while that could certainly change next year, right now the trade looks like an absolute steal for the Fightins. Luzardo went 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA in 32 starts last season. His numbers shine even more if one ignores the 20(!) earned runs he allowed in a bizarre two-start/5.2 inning mid-season stretch.
RHP Taijuan Walker (signed through 2026, will earn $18 million in 2026)
Baseball economics can produce bizarre outcomes. While Sanchez makes $3.5 mil as a Cy Young candidate, Walker will get paid a fortune to compete for the fifth starter role. But the money is a sunk cost, and the 4.08 ERA he posted in 2025 makes him a serviceable option at the back of the rotation… even if his 7.10 ERA from 2024 remains fresh in the memory of Phils fans.
What about Ranger Suarez?
We will probably see Suarez in another uniform next year. The Phillies would love to have him back, and Suarez said in March that “all [he] thinks about” is staying in Philadelphia. But the lefty’s agent is Scott Boras and high-quality starting pitching is always in demand. Suarez is likely to secure a massive contract this off-season and, sadly, the Phils will probably not be among the highest bidders.
Is it unfathomable that he’d return? Certainly not. But the Phils’ pitching staff will be strong with or without Ranger Danger. Meanwhile, the team needs to pay or replace free agents Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Harrison Bader just to maintain an offense in need of upgrades.
What about Andrew Painter?
Painter was widely expected to make his Phillies debut as a 19-year old phenom in 2023, before Tommy John surgery derailed those plans. After a lengthy recovery, the 6’7” flamethrower looked incredible in late 2024 pitching in the Arizona Fall League. He was named the AFL’s Pitcher of the Year after posting a 2.30 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with 10.3 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings.
Though Painter threw less than 16 innings in the AFL, he impressed enough for Dave Dombrowski to say early in 2025 that the righthander could arrive in the majors “July-ish.” But Painter then struggled in 22 starts for the triple-A IronPigs, with a 5.40 ERA over 106.2 innings.
It’s not all bad news for the prince we were promised. He made it through the ‘25 season healthy, his fastball still touches triple digits, and by all accounts his stuff is just fine. Phils manager Rob Thomson recently attributed Painter’s woes to command issues.
“I think everybody was excited about getting him back,” Thomson said in September. “But I think at the end of the day . . . it usually takes two years for a guy to come back. I think we can all look back and think, ‘man, probably should have expected this.’”
Painter is still the key to the Phillies’ chances to successfully transition into a younger, more affordable team in years to come. Hopefully we’ll see him crack the rotation in 2026.
The bullpen
RHP Jhoan Duran (under club control through 2027, expected to earn $8 million in arbitration)
Duran will be the Phillies’ closer next season after posting a 2.18 ERA and saving 16 games with the team in 2025.
RHP Orion Kerkering (under club control through 2029, will earn $825,000 in 2026)
Kerkering will have to shake off the heartbreaking end to the Phillies’ NLDS against the Dodgers. The Phils will need him in ‘26.
LHP Matt Strahm (signed through 2027, will earn $7.5 million in 2026)
Strahm’s numbers dropped across the board from 2024 to 2025, but were still very good. His ERA rose from 1.87 to 2.74, his WHIP went from 0.750 to 1.075, and his walks increased from 11 to 20 in almost the exact same number of innings.
LHP Tanner Banks (under club control through 2028, expected to earn $1.25 million in arbitration)
Banks’ 1.01 WHIP and 1.6 walks per nine in 2025 were the best figures of his major league career.
LHP Jose Alvarado (club expected to exercise a $9 million option for 2026)
“I’d be surprised without making any announcements that Alvarado’s not back with us,” Dombrowski told reporters in October. “But we’ll see what ends up happening.”
Other Phillies relievers under contract/club control for 2026 include RHP Michael Mercado, RHP Max Lazar, RHP Nolan Hoffman, RHP Seth Johnson, RHP Daniel Robert, and RHP Alan Rangel. Of this group, only Lazar contributed more than 13 innings to the major league team in 2025.
Dombrowski has some work to do this offseason to round out the ‘pen. It’s safe to say he can do better than last year’s acquisition of Jordan Romano and Joe Ross.
We looked at the offense a few weeks ago and made some predictions, you can check it out here if you missed it:
Tweets and skeets of the week
I guess there was a World Series this week. The Dodgers won their second of ten consecutive championships and the broadcast forced us to relive our Joe Carter trauma every five minutes. Terrific stuff. 😔
Will begrudgingly admit that the series made for incredible theater. Seven games and the seventh goes into extra innings? C’mon now.
Even with a trillion dollar roster featuring the best player on the planet, a team needs some luck to win it all.
It sure is. Now let’s see if Major League Baseball screws it up after the current collective bargaining agreement expires in a year.
Same.
But hey, pitchers and catchers report in about 100 days. Let’s do it all again.
The section of the newsletter where I make you look at my dogs
Look at my dogs.
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Catching up late... but this so captures my mood perfectly:
"Pissed off.
Same.
But hey, pitchers and catchers report in about 100 days. Let’s do it all again."
The offseason reading from my man is always awesome … not to mention seeing your dogs at the end