The Phillies will turn this around.

Here are four reasons why nothing is fucked.

May 08, 2023

35 games in, the Phillies are 16-19. The team’s ERA is 5.15, the worst in the National League.

Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are off to slow starts. Bailey Falter and Taijuan Walker are off to disastrous starts. Matt Strahm has the best numbers of anyone in the rotation, but he’s reportedly going back to a relief role when Ranger Suarez returns.

All stats in this post are as of the end of May 6

Things aren’t any better in the bullpen. Phillies relievers have a combined 5.33 ERA.

On offense, the Phils lead the league in hits but rank 12th in runs scored. They have the third highest batting average in the NL, but they’re not drawing walks (12th in NL) and they’re striking out way too much (13th in NL).

Kyle Schwarber is batting .176. Trea Turner has underwhelmed. There are good numbers elsewhere in the lineup, and MVP Bryce Harper is back. But so far, the Phillies haven’t been able to out-slug teams to compensate for their pitching issues.

It’s been bad. But nothing is fucked, Dude. Here are four reasons why:

1) The starters will pitch better.

Nola might not ever be the reliable ace that we want him to be. But he has a career 3.64 ERA, he’s healthy, and he’s only 30 years old. He is going to play better.

Similarly, Wheeler’s pitching can only improve. He has a career 3.45 ERA and posted a 2.82 ERA from 2020 through 2022 with the Phils. It’s unlikely that his ERA will remain over 4.00.

Suarez and his 3.12 career ERA will also help. He’s expected to make his season debut next weekend.

And whatever happens at the back of the rotation won’t be worse than what we’ve seen from Walker and Falter early on. Because how could it be?

2) The team’s offensive luck will improve.

The Phillies are hitting. They’re just not hitting when it matters most.

By every metric, the offense is performing its worst in critical moments:

Phillies hitters have a .772 OPS with the bases empty, a .724 OPS with runners on base, and a .663 OPS with runners in scoring position.
In game situations that Baseball Reference defines as “late and close” (7th inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at bat/on deck) the Phillies have a .608 OPS.
Baseball Reference also classifies plate appearances as “high, medium, or low leverage.” Phillies batters have a .597 OPS in high leverage situations.
27 of the Phillies’ 37 home runs (73%) have been solo shots. The MLB-wide figure is consistently around 60% or lower. In 2022 it felt like every Phils HR was solo, and even then their actual solo HR rate was only 61%.

These numbers aren’t sustainable over the course of 162 games. Maybe they would be sustainable for a group of players who shrink from the spotlight. But we just watched these guys go to the World Series, and they played their best baseball of the year in the playoffs. For all their faults, this lineup doesn’t play scared in big moments.

As a matter of fact, we even saw a two-run home run and some clutch hitting today.

3) The team’s pitching luck will improve.

Just about everything hurting the Phillies’ offensive numbers is working in their opponents’ favor so far:

Opposing hitters have a .703 OPS with the bases empty, a .783 OPS with runners on base, and an .887(!) OPS with runners in scoring position.
In late and close game situations, opposing hitters have a .643 OPS. Doesn’t seem that high, but these are the situations where teams use their best relievers. And it’s 35 points higher than the Phillies’ corresponding OPS.
Opposing batters have an .863 OPS in high leverage situations.
Only 17 of opponents’ 35 home runs (49%) have been solo shots.

Just like the offense’s numbers, these figures will normalize over the course of a full season. Some of what’s happening here might be caused by a lack of talent or a missing “clutch gene” or whatever. But when numbers are this far out of alignment, part of it is undeniably just dumb luck.

4) Umpires’ bad calls will start to even out.

Complaining about umpires demonstrates enormous loser energy. We shouldn’t engage in this behavior much.

But when bad calls hurt, they hurt. And bad calls don’t affect all teams equally.

Jay Cuda recently analyzed Statcast info to determine “how much home plate umpires have hurt/helped teams” this season. His results show that only five MLB teams have been burned by umps more than the Phillies.

It’s entirely possible that umpires are conspiring against the Phils and will continue to do so. (It has felt that way for years.) But more likely, this is yet another area where the team’s luck will improve.

So here we are, friends. There are 127 games left to play. The Phillies may or may not win enough of them to make the playoffs. But this roster is too talented to keep losing like this, and the math says they’ll get better.

Odds are they’ll be fine.

And if not, well, The Dude abides.

Exclusive new artwork from Ragnaroktopus Ink.

Welcome back, Bryce. No pressure. There’s only an entire city counting on you.

Exclusive new artwork from Dhwani Saraiya.

Nick Castellanos this season: .304/.356/.489, 4 HR, 22 RBI.

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Tweets of the week.

The Phillies and Sixers playing on the same days has been… something:
https://twitter.com/Brookie425/status/1655221281141186560?s=20
The baseball/basketball doubleheader was a disaster on Friday but worked out great on Sunday:
https://twitter.com/TheBrookeDestra/status/1655256811128201218?s=20
Due to some MLB contract with Nike, the Phillies have to ditch one of their jerseys. Most folks think the red tops will go. Based on Harper’s comments, it won’t be the cream unis:
https://twitter.com/PhilliesNation/status/1655244900789542912?s=20
Phillies fans never unanimously agree on anything, but we came together this week to bully the team into changing its lineup. And it immediately paid off.
https://twitter.com/PHI_HR_Tracker/status/1655289324152168448?s=20
The Phils celebrated Mother’s Day at CBP on Sunday because they’ll be out of town next weekend. Always a nice wholesome day at the ballpark when Phoebe Phanatic shows up. Let’s see what twitter has to sa— oh.
https://twitter.com/xcaliburr1017/status/1655285197321928706?s=20

This week in 2008.

The 2008 Phils were 20-15 at the end of May 7.

They wrapped up a home series vs the Padres with a 3-2 W on May 1. Ryan Howard’s 8th-inning home run (his sixth of the year) was the difference.

The Giants came to town next and the Phillies took two of three. Both wins were walk-offs with a 6-5 score: Down 5-4 in the 10th inning on May 2, Pat Burrell hit a two-run HR off Brian Wilson; and Ryan Howard scored from second on a 9th-inning error for the win on May 4. In between, the Giants stole one 3-2 in 10 innings, but Chase Utley hit his MLB-leading 13th home run of the season.

The win on May 4 was Charlie Manuel’s 500th career victory as a manager.

On May 5 the Phils traveled to Arizona and won the series opener 11-4. 45-year-old Jamie Moyer was the winning pitcher that day and, in his first major league start, 23-year-old Max Scherzer took the loss.

On May 6, the Diamondbacks won 6-4 behind Randy Johnson. Eric Bruntlett and Jayson Werth hit home runs in the loss. And on May 7, a two-run HR from Pedro Feliz helped the Phillies win, 5-4.