This could be the most important Phillies season in years
2026 finds the franchise at an inflection point.
Phillies fans are forgiven if they aren’t bursting with excitement over the upcoming season.
The team’s most significant upgrades this winter consisted of shuffling some bullpen pieces and signing budget-friendly outfielder Adolis Garcia. Club execs failed to land free agent Bo Bichette after a highly public pursuit. They let Ranger Suarez walk, waved goodbye to the popular Harrison Bader, and spent $195 million just to keep their longtime catcher and designated hitter in place.
On Tuesday, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski put a bow on the offseason with the words nobody wanted to hear: “We’re content where we are.”
Way to fire us up, Dave!
But while the “running it back” narrative around the 2026 Fightins is largely accurate, there’s another—arguably bigger—story in the works. Three of the team’s most highly regarded prospects are expected to make their big-league debuts this season: pitcher Andrew Painter, outfielder Justin Crawford, and infielder Aidan Miller. Years from now, it’s very possible that the ‘26 club will be remembered more for its rookies than its stars.
The Phillies drafted the trio with consecutive first-round picks from 2021 through 2023 and, each year at the trade deadline, they resisted the temptation to swap them out for major league help. It may have cost the franchise dearly; we will never know whether a late-July acquisition would have delivered a championship.
But we will learn more about the other side of those non-trades this year. The Phils did a great job spending themselves back into MLB relevance, but there’s no substitute for drafting and developing young, low-cost talent.
After all, that’s how the franchise built the core of their last championship:
Jimmy Rollins (2nd round pick, 1996)
Pat Burrell (1st round pick, 1998)
Brett Myers (1st round pick, 1999)
Chase Utley (1st round pick, 2000)
Ryan Howard (5th round pick, 2001)
Cole Hamels (1st round pick, 2002)
Just a remarkable run, especially considering the 15 years or so of draft frustration that followed (Aaron Nola in 2014 representing a significant exception). The Phils found mild success with Alec Bohm (2018) and Bryson Stott (2019), but the two infielders supplemented a core built via free agency rather than forming a core of their own.
The newest young guys have exactly the type of potential necessary to build the next Phillies championship squad. Sure, historically, hyped-up Phils prospects have often underwhelmed. But there are reasons to believe in this group.
Andrew Painter
Painter is ranked 32nd in Baseball America’s recent list of the top 100 prospects in baseball ($). The publication previously ranked the righthander as high as 5th (prior to the 2023 season), and ranked him 9th just a year ago.
The drop was caused by Painter’s struggles in 22 games with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs last season, where he posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over 106.2 innings. Those numbers dashed any hopes that the 6’7”, 215 lb. pitcher would join the big league club in “July-ish” 2025, as Dombrowski had predicted earlier in the year.
But the Phillies believe Painter’s struggles were simply a result of the Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for all of 2023 and most of 2024, and that he’ll soon return to form. Here’s what mlb.com writers had to say about the 22-year-old-flamethrower before the ‘25 season:
One of the best high school arms in the 2021 Draft class, Painter looked like perhaps the best pitching prospect in the game during his first full season, reaching Double-A in 2022 and earning MLB Pipeline Pitching Prospect of the Year honors . . . His highly anticipated return to action in the Arizona Fall League last year did not disappoint, and there was little rust as the right-hander displayed his elite-level stuff over the course of six outings.
During his time in the Fall League, Painter showed that in many ways he was the same premium prospect with a legitimate four-pitch mix, albeit with a little twist. His plus heater was touching 100 mph again and averaged 97 in the fall with plenty of ride up in the zone, he dropped in his low-80s curve for strikes and his above-average changeup got better as the fall season wore on. The new wrinkle for the 6-foot-7 right-hander was a harder slider with cutter-like action thrown in the upper 80s, replacing what had been more of a sweeper.
Painter misses bats with all four offerings, and while his fastball command was understandably a bit scattered at times given his long layoff, he continued to astound with his ability to pound the strike zone thanks to a simple and repeatable delivery.
Painter has a shot to make the Phillies Opening Day rotation this year.
Justin Crawford
Barring any surprises, Crawford will start the 2026 season in the big leagues as the Phils’ everyday center fielder. He’s 96th in Baseball America’s top 100.
He hit .334/.411/.452 (.863 OPS) in 506 plate appearances in Triple-A last year while stealing 46 bases, so there is nothing left for him to prove in the minors.
The knock on Crawford is a high ground ball rate, which many analysts believe will translate to more outs at the major league level. But he has maintained a .322 average and an .831 OPS over 1,459 career minor league PAs.
Aidan Miller
Baseball America ranks Miller as the best of the three young Phillies at 14th in their top 100, up from 36th prior to the 2025 season. He has played shortstop in the minors, but could switch to third base with Trea Turner cemented in the Phils’ major league lineup.
Last August he hit .348/.454/.629 (1.083 OPS) with four home runs in Double-A ball. And in September, between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .370/.554/.565 (1.119 OPS) with two more bombs.
He’ll begin this season with the IronPigs, but barring any unexpected struggles you’ll see him in Philly sometime this summer.
Painter.
Crawford.
Miller.
Their success would set the organization up nicely for years, and their failure would be nothing less than devastating. Their arrival makes this the most important Phillies season in years.
For better or worse… If you’re tired of the same old Phils, know that change is on the way.
And maybe even a championship.
Von Hayes special
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Tweets and skeets of the week
If there’s any remaining doubt that the Phillies need a youth infusion:
I think this means the Phils are due:
Make fun of BlueSky all you want, but I love it. Feels like old-school twitter to me. The type of stuff that can’t break through the X algorithm anymore.
For example, there’s an account entirely dedicated to fake Muppet Show guests. It’s literally all it posts. Relevant to our purposes is this skeet:
The section of the newsletter where I make you look at my dogs
Thanks for reading! Stay cozy this weekend…
Great post, John.
2026 is as pivotal a year as they come.
But I'm optimistic... because baseball is too weird and we should have a better bullpen than we did last year.
Stay safe out there!
My man!!!! Stay safe this weekend bro