Which Phillies Will Return in 2026?

⚾ Predictions for Kyle Schwarber and the rest of the lineup

Oh hello there.

Thank you for not unsubscribing from this newsletter while it was dormant for two years. As you may know, I was off on an adventure as a “real” Phillies writer.

How did it go?

Uh… really, uh… great. I learned a lot. And everyone treated me very… nice. It was great.

How is high school, Billy?

I’ll tell you the truth about all that some other day. Today, as we mourn the end of another disappointing Phillies postseason, let’s assess the state of the lineup and make some way-too-early predictions for 2026.

Catcher

J.T. Realmuto enters free agency after posting a .700 OPS in his age-34 season. That’s the lowest OPS for Realmuto since his rookie year in 2015. While he’s no longer the best catcher in baseball, he will probably remain the Phillies’ best option. Rafael Marchan and Garrett Stubbs are not viewed as starting caliber MLB catchers—at least not for a team with championship hopes.

• PREDICTION: Realmuto returns on a modest two-year, $25 million deal. The Phils could be forced to give the veteran something like three-years, $30-some mil if there is significant competition for his services.

First Base

Bryce Harper is locked in through the 2031 season. He has expressed a willingness to move back to the outfield to facilitate the “right” free agent acquisition, and even named Pete Alonso as an example of a player who could prompt that move. Alonso is a free agent this off-season, but several recent reports say the big man is looking for a monster contract spanning seven years or more. The odds of the Phillies signing Alonso range from slim (if they let Kyle Schwarber walk) to none (if they pay Schwarbs).

• PREDICTION: Harper stays put.

Second Base

Bryson Stott quietly played very well for the Phils over his final 50 games of the season, hitting .310/.377/.503 (.880 OPS). He’s expected to make about $5.5 million in 2026, his second year of arbitration. That figure could be an absolute steal if his late-season offensive success continues into 2026. We already know what he can do defensively.

• PREDICTION: Stott stays put.

Third Base

The Phillies shopped Alec Bohm last off-season, and it’s hard to see why they wouldn’t do so again. Sure, he is one of the team’s better contact guys, hitting .287 last season and striking out 16.7% of the time. And he has developed into a reliable third baseman defensively. But whatever the organization disliked about Bohm last off-season—his demeanor, according to some, or maybe his lack of power—likely remains a concern this off-season. Murmurs about Bohm’s maturity never went away, and his home runs totals have declined from 20 in 2023 to 15 in 2024 to just 11 in 2025.

• PREDICTION: Bohm is gone. The organization doesn’t seem to love him and he’s only getting more expensive (projected to earn over $10 million in 2026, his final year of arbitration). For a team in need of a shakeup but with their hands tied elsewhere, third base might as well sport a bullseye. Free agent options exist at a variety of price points, and Otto Kemp and Edmundo Sosa can serve as better-than-average backups at the position.

Shortstop

Trea Turner is the reigning National League batting champ and is under contract through 2033. He probably improved enough defensively in 2025 to end the speculation over a position switch… until his next error, at least.

• PREDICTION: Turner stays put.

Outfield

It feels like divorce is inevitable for the Phillies and Nick Castellanos. Casty is set to make $20 million in 2026, the final year of his contract. That’s a hefty sum for a defensively-challenged corner outfielder who hit .250/.294/.400 (.694 OPS) last season. Free-swinging and strikeout-prone, he’s the poster child for the Phillies’ offensive woes. Oh, there’s also a well-documented communication issue between Castellanos and manager Rob Thomson. And a complicated situationship between the player and Phillies fans.

• PREDICTION: The Phils eat half of the cash that Castellanos is owed and find a team eager to take him on at $10 million. In return they get a player you’ve never heard of.

Harrison Bader is another question mark as the Phils construct their next outfield. There’s a mutual club/player option for Bader to return at $10 million next year, but Master Bader probably wants job security beyond the 2026 season.

• PREDICTION: Bader comes back on a two-year, $20 million deal. Fans should temper their expectations offensively, because the .824 OPS version of Bader we saw with the 2025 Phillies was unprecedented in his nine years in the majors. (Bader has a career .714 OPS.) But he’s a gold glove centerfielder and the energy he brought to the team at the trade deadline is undeniable. It’s also probably not a coincidence that Bader elevated his game in front of packed houses at the Bank. The guy just fits, and the Phillies would be wise to keep him around.

Brandon Marsh should be back. He’s expected to make about $5.5 million in 2026, his second year of arbitration. That’s a great number for a player who plays better-than-average defense and absolutely mashes right-handed pitching: .300/.356/.482 (.838 OPS) vs RHP in 2025.

Max Kepler is probably gone. Despite a rough start with the Phils and their fans, he’ll leave on fairly good terms. But the left-handed batter always seemed redundant on a roster with Marsh, who is five years younger.

Others in the outfield mix include Johan Rojas and Weston Wilson. The former is terrific defensively and the latter shouldn’t really be an outfielder. Neither is a serviceable every day player offensively.

• PREDICTION: The primary Phillies outfielders in 2026 will be Bader, Marsh, and a secret third player. Kyle Tucker sits atop the free agent outfielder market and Phillies fans will surely dream about him in the middle of the lineup. But fans really shouldn’t get their hopes up about that.

Well. Unless.

Designated Hitter

Kyle Schwarber is, of course, the key to this Phillies off-season. His return would be a no-brainer under normal circumstances. The man hit a career-high 56 home runs and drove in 132 runs. He’s the consensus runner-up for NL MVP behind Shohei Ohtani. He is the clubhouse leader, he rivals Harper as the face of the franchise, and he is beloved by 99.9% of Phillies fans.

Sadly, however, the Phils’ circumstances are anything but normal. Fans are begging for something, anything, to change after the team came up short in the postseason for a fourth consecutive year. Without getting into the dreadful Competitive Balance Tax details, suffice it to say that re-signing Kyle Schwarber would almost certainly preclude another blockbuster move. Schwarber also occupies the DH spot on a daily basis for a team that would probably like to rest its other veteran stars more often.

Bummer Summary

The Phillies’ options, realistically, look like this:

• Sign Schwarber and run back a team that looks very much like the 2025 Phillies. That’s a team that won 96 regular season games. It’s also a team that got bounced from the playoffs in the NLDS… again. An appetite for this approach probably correlates with a belief that the postseason is a crapshoot.

• Let Schwarber walk and acquire a high-profile bat. This is the move if you’re convinced that the current iteration of the Phillies cannot win a championship. Want to shake it up with a big-name free agent? Then we probably have to bid farewell to our schwarbombs.

  While there is technically no salary cap in baseball, it is hard to imagine the Phillies taking on two new enormous contracts this winter. Penalties would essentially double the cost of every dollar paid to the second impact bat.

What should the Phillies do? I do not know. Shit, why don’t you tell me:

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I’m really excited to re-start this newsletter. What better time than now, when Phillies fan morale is at a five year low?

In our next edition, we’ll discuss the 2026 outlook for the pitching staff, Rob Thomson, and the Phils’ coaches.

Stay tuned for some really fun guest authors as well.

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